Theoretically,oilreserves,productioncapacity,output,macroeconomicandoildemandwillimpactonlong-termoilprices.Ofrelevantvariables,however,wethroughstepwiseregressionmethodafterthescreening,foundthatlong-terminternationaloilpricesandtheworldoildemandandOpecsparecapacitytherearesignificantcorrelation.ItalsosuggeststhatOpecsparecapacityhasanimportantmarketbalance.
对于一些研究机构提出国际油价将跌至80美元/桶甚至出现暴跌的情况，我们分析后认为也不排除这一可能。首先，由于全球经济风险依然突出，特别是发生金融危机的根源没有得到彻底的消除，发达经济体再次出现金融危机的可能性依然存在，中国经济增速若持续减缓甚至出现经济危机，这都将极大地影响石油需求。其次，石油供应好于预期将造成石油市场极度宽松的供需局面。
Forsomeresearchinstituteinternationaloilpricestofallto$80abarrelevencollapse,afterweanalysisthatdoesnotruleoutthepossibility.Firstofall,becauseoftheglobaleconomicriskisstillprominent,especiallytherootofthefinancialcrisishasnotbeencompletelyeliminated,developedeconomiesappearagainthepossibilityoffinancialcrisisstillexists,ifChina'sgrowthcontinuestoslowdownorevenaneconomiccrisis,itwillgreatlyaffectthedemandforoil.Second,theoilsupplybetter-than-expectedultra-loosemonetarysupplyanddemandsituationwillcausetheoilmarket.
正因为如此天然气作为汽车燃料，燃烧后尾气中各种有毒有害物的排放相对于燃油汽车综合降低约85%左右，因此，天然气被公认为“绿色环保车用燃料”。除了环保性能好以外，以气代油还可以大幅度降低燃料成本。汽车“油改气”，简单地说，就是给汽车另外加装一套使用天然气的设备，让汽车在使用汽油的同时，也可以选择使用天然气作为燃料。济南汽车油改气与汽油相比，天然气具有低价格和低污染的双重优势。汽车使用了天然气后尾气排放大大减少，这也正好符合环保的要求。
Andbecauseofthatnaturalgasasautomotivefuelcombustionexhaustafterallkindsofpoisonousharmfulemissionsrelativetothefuelvehicleintegratedreducedabout85%,therefore,naturalgasisrecognizedas"greencarfuel".Inadditiontotheenvironmentalprotectionperformanceisgood,withgasgenerationcanalsoreducethecostoffueloil.Oiltogasforcars,inanutshell,istogivethecarbyaddingasetoftheuseofnaturalgasequipment,inadditiontothecarintheuseofgasolineatthesametime,canalsochoosetousenaturalgasasafuel.Jinancaroiltogascomparedwithgasoline,naturalgashasthedualadvantagesoflowpriceandlowpollution.Carafterusingthegasemissionsreducegreatly,thisalsohappenstoconformtotherequirementsofenvironmentalprotection.
